The Rugby World Cup has kicked off and we will be bringing you the historical tips from the man behind Rugby Knowledge. The event runs over 44 days, leading up to the World Cup Final on Saturday 2nd of November.
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The following preview was posted on Rugby Knowledge several weeks prior to the event starting. Be interesting to see how accurate he is!
What better place to start than the 3 times champions and holders. Year on year they continue to be the pinnacle in world rugby. This year though I think they look vulnerable. Generally priced at around 11/8 is way too short for me. Beaten by Australia and drawing at home vs South Africa this year, although that is still strong form, in recent times they would have blown both these sides away. It shows they are not miles ahead of the rest of the world this time around.
Although I have said above that NZ are not as far in front as normal, they are still the benchmark for other sides, which is why I would be siding with SA at the prices. In the last year they have won by 2 points, lost by 2 points and drawn with NZ. I ask you to find more quality consistent form than that. This is a top quality South Africa team who really do have what to takes to go all the way, and price up at 9/2 they are a solid bet.
A hit or miss side in recent years, but on their day can beat anyone, as shown by the dominant win over NZ earlier this year. At a best price of 16/1 they are a staggering price and I will be playing at those odds. They will make the quarters, and then it’s one off knock out games where they are more than capable beating anyone with match winners all over the park.
So excited for this squad England have put together this year. Match winners all over the park, but I still feel they can be bullied in the big games, just look at Wales in Cardiff twice this year, and Ireland last year. They have the potential to go far in this competition but may just come up short.
One step too far. The 6 Nations was huge for them, and I tipped them to win the grand slam at 14/1. But that was with the Principality stadium behind them, this will be very different, they are a different team with the Welsh masses praying for blood, but this will be very different and being a side that live and play off of that passion I can’t see them being able to put the big performance in when it is needed most.
Write off the performance against England that was too bad to be true. Instead look at the two performances vs Wales in the warm-ups. That is more like the Ireland side we will see at this World Cup. Consistent, strong and will make very few mistakes. Are they good enough to win a World Cup, I don’t think so, but I don’t mind being proven wrong.
Please see below for my recommended tournament bets.Rugby Knowledge
World Cup Winners – South Africa 9/2
South Africa looks to have a fine balance between power, which they’ve always been associated with, pace and a real threat from the backs, which over the years at times they’ve lacked.
With arguably the best number 10 in world rugby right now in Handre Pollard pulling the strings from 10, the power and leadership of Siya Kolisi backed up by the colossus that is Eben Etzebeth in the pack, plus not one but 2 electric scrum halves in Faf De Clerk and Herschel Jantjes, not to mention the pace and guile of Cheslin Kolbe, they have an outstanding set of players at present who come into this tournament in great form and full of confidence.
World Cup Winners – Australia e/w 16/1
As mentioned above, Australia are capable of beating any side on their day and 16/1 seems a bit of an insult to a team who should really win their group comfortably and set up a quarterfinal against the runner up in Pool C, which looks more than likely to be France, assuming England perform as hoped and expected. That then potentially gives us a 16/1 shot into the Semi Finals, where in a one off game anything can happen. They have an array of talent behind the scrum and the return of David Pocock who played his first game back for the national team in their final preparation game in the comprehensive defeat of Western Samoa is a huge bonus for the Aussies.
Rugby World Cup 1st 2 matches
1st two games of the tournament and we have the hosts looking to start with a win against the weakest side in their group. We also have an intriguing game between Australia and Fiji.
Japan vs Russia 20/9/19 11:45 bst
The hosts will really look to get off to a winning start and put on a good performance for the very vocal home crowd, but Russia will not be a walkover. Russia +39 Handicap (generally Even Money) : Result – WON
Australia vs Fiji 21/9/19 5:45 bst
Sevens specialists Fiji are finally an emerging force in the 15’s game and you will get the usual physicality and flair from them, but Australia are a very underrated side at the moment which is reflected in their tournament price. Australia -15 Handicap (generally 10/11) : Result – WON
Play the double first up to get the tournament off to a cracking start – 3/1 Double Landed
Rugby World Cup 25-28/9/19 Matches
Fiji vs Uruguay 25/9/19 6:15am BST
We are yet to see the South Americans, but they are one of the weakest sides in the tournament. Fiji will rip the Uruguan defence to shreds, and I dont expect a let up.
Fiji -30 handicap 10/11 (most major bookmakers)
England vs USA 26/9/19 11:45am BST
The US will be fairly solid for the first 30 mins, but England will slowly break them down, should have a healthy lead by halftime and then blow them away with a strong bench in the 2nd half.
England -34 handicap 10/11 (most major bookies)
Japan vs Ireland 28/9/19 8:15am BST
Japan will have big home support again, but this Irish side will be much too strong for them and I think to 20 points offered on the handicap is not even close to being right
Ireland -20 handicap NAP 10/11 (most major bookmakers)
Play the doubles and the treble for a nice win and a top start to the weekend when the Irish bring home the big win. Plenty more to come, its a long tournament and we are looking for handicap snips.
Rugby World Cup 29-30/9/19 Matches
Georgia vs Uruguay 29/9/19 6:15am BST
Don’t go mad, but I think its worth a bet. Maybe double with Ireland from previous selections.
Uruguay +16 10/11 (most major bookies, can find EVS)
Australia vs Wales 29/9/19 8:45am BST
This is now the big crunch game in this pool, you would expect both teams to progress, but this is a huge test.
Australia +5 handicap 4/6 (most major bookies)
Scotland vs Samoa 30/9/19 11:15am BST
NAP NAP NAP
There is a big handicap swing and if the Islanders can do it, then the pre-tournament 40/1 to get out of the group will be looking a tidy bet. Play the handicap though, as the points on offer are a no brainer.
Samoa +18 handicap 10/11 (most major bookies)
A strong line up for South Africa, I expect them to dominate possession, be too strong and powerful for the Italian forwards and then unleash their potent backs with Cheslin Kolbe hopefully nabbing a few tries. If Italy try to spoil the game, Handre Pollard may rack up a good few points.
Rugby World Cup 3 & 4th October 2019 Matches
South Africa – 28 or -29 depending on your preferred bookmaker at 10/11